In January, Seattle inaugurated new mayor Mike McGinn. His insurgent campaign stunned the political establishment as he promises to bring a radically different style of governance to the city. But every mayor arrives full of ambition and big promises. What's really going to happen? Here's what to look for in the first year of McGinn's term:
Slow Out of the Gates
Don't expect the McGinn administration to come barreling in like a U.S. president, racing to rack up big achievements in the first 100 days. Even if he's as visionary as his supporters hope and believe, McGinn will be dealing with a very steep learning curve. His campaign had exactly zero paid staff--the city government has over 10,000 employees and dozens of departments. Unlike many cities of similar size with a mayor-city manager system, the Seattle mayor is both political leader and bureaucrat-in-chief. Expect a healthy adjustment period and modest early accomplishments.
Stepping in It
The news that the transition team was contemplating switching the mayor's office from PCs to Macs (because, you know, he's a Mac kind of guy) will be followed by similar errors. This is a very politically inexperienced group and however strong a command of policy they bring, they're not used to operating under the scrutiny of the daily press. They will learn discipline and, in doing so, sacrifice some of their character (don't expect to see McGinn riding his bike to work for very long). But in the meantime get used to Seattle Times reporters jumping on occasional bursts of naiveté.
Free at Last
With bully mayor Nickels out, and the new mayor finding his footing, expect the city council, led by council president Richard Conlin, to fill the initiative vacuum. Nickels notoriously eschewed the "Seattle way" for his more Chicago-style methods and pushed the council around seemingly at will.
They're privately delighted to be rid of the old boss and expect to flex their muscles quickly, challenging the incoming mayor (who several on the council consider a lightweight) to keep up. Conlin has an ambitious agenda, including expanding light rail to West Seattle, cleaning up the Duwamish River, and a massive SR520 rebuild. These aren't projects McGinn opposes, but they aren't necessarily his top priorities either-expect the council to set the agenda until McGinn can find a way to seize the initiative.
Tunnel On the Horizon
Despite basing his entire primary campaign on opposition to the Tunnel, McGinn realized late in the general election that as mayor he simply would not have the political ammo to do anything more than delay the massive Viaduct replacement project. The state and feds have already committed $2.4 billion to the project, the city council voted 9-0 to proceed, and public opinion, while hardly enthusiastic, is strongly in the "just build the damn thing already" category. Barring unforeseen drama, McGinn will swallow his idealism and let the Tunnel project happen.
There Will Be Cuts
Major layoffs and cuts in city services were staved off this year by unpaid furloughs for city employees and dipping heavily into the city's Rainy Day Fund. With the Fund nearly exhausted and revenue forecasts looking even bleaker next year, the new mayor and the council are going to have a hard time avoiding significant cuts in city expenses. McGinn campaigned on cutting redundant city personnel; this should be an easy promise to keep.
But Don't Count Him Out
With all these caveats, it might be easy to assume McGinn and Seattle are in for a well-meaning but ineffectual four years. Maybe. But while McGinn is hardly the first insurgent candidate to ride a neighborhood strategy to city hall, his accomplishment is still astonishing. Even with weak approval ratings Greg Nickels was considered a shoe-in for reelection. Nickels wrapped up every major donor (apart from Mallahan donating to himself), every major union, and nearly every serious political heavyweight in the city. And McGinn beat him. Then all that establishment muscle and money defaulted to Mallahan. And then McGinn beat him too.
McGinn may have some rough political lessons ahead of him, but he is a remarkably scrappy and resilient fighter, a powerful force of personality, and genuinely committed to changing the way city hall runs. He's unlikely to give up anytime soon.